The Publishing Industry Has a Gambling Problem

“The book business may be centred in New York, but the logic is pure Las Vegas.” In this essay at The Walrus, Tajja Isen examines the modern publishing industry, the sales “track” metric that can make or break an author’s career, and how it’s harder than ever for writers to sell books right now, unless they “scream commercial” or are guaranteed blockbusters. Isen discusses debuts; book advances; the trickle-down effects on smaller presses; and the impact on the entire literary ecosystem, including readers.

This mid-list cohort is exerting a downward pressure on the publishing landscape. By seeking support at smaller presses, they risk filling the spaces meant for more experimental or early-career authors. This isn’t just bad for writers—it’s bad for literature. If people aren’t given chances to grow and explore in ways the market doesn’t recognize, Nehmetallah says, then readers lose out too. Toronto-based writer Jean Marc Ah-Sen, who has published several books with small and independent presses, feels that he and his peers are being crowded out of their own game. “I used to think that the frontier of literary culture was the indie presses,” he says. “But when a person who has done three books with Penguin gets pushed down, it makes less room for the people who were doing the independent stuff to begin with.” Publishers, as McGrath says, have always been risk averse. But with higher pressure to find a sure thing, more writers who may have been able to sell a book five or ten years ago, whether to a corporate or an independent press, are being left out in the cold.